Refis Sputter, la Fed vuelve a recortar los tipos y la fiebre por la IA impulsa los mercados: semana del 26 de octubre al 2 de noviembre de 2025

📈 Executive Overview

The week spanning late October and early November was a study in contrasts. Mortgage rates dipped to roughly 6.30 %—the lowest in a year—yet pending home sales remained unchanged and 34 % below 2019 levels. El Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bp, signaling the end of quantitative tightening on December 1, but Chair Powell warned that another cut in December is not a given. Banks borrowed a record $50 billion from the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility to calm month‑end funding stress.

Housing, inflation, labor, liquidity and alternative assets all showed divergent signals. This post breaks down what changed and what it means for investors.

🏠 Housing & Real Estate

• Demand freeze persists: Pending home sales were flat in September and remain around 34 % below pre‑pandemic levels, despite mortgage rates sliding to a one‑year low. Buyers are still waiting for larger price declines or further rate relief.

• Condo prices below bubble peaks: Mid‑tier condo prices in several metros—Silver Spring, St. Louis, Cape Coral, Baton Rouge, Lafayette—are now below their peaks from the 2005–2008 housing bubble. Nationally, the Freddie Mac index shows only +1 % YoY growth with 19 states below prior highs.

• Supply still elevated: Single‑family supply hovers near 4.5 months and condo supply around 6.5 months, the highest since 2016. Builders continue offering incentives and price cuts.

🔗 Use our Real Estate Investing Calculator y Mortgage Affordability Calculator to test different rate and price scenarios.

💼 Labour Market & Policy

• Fed cuts & QT end: The FOMC lowered the federal funds rate to 3.75–4.0 % and announced the end of QT as of Dec 1. Two members dissented, highlighting policy uncertainty.

• Dollar firm on caution: Powell said a December cut is “not a forgone conclusion,” boosting the U.S. dollar.

• Non‑release of payrolls: The government shutdown delayed October payrolls. About 100 k federal workers who took deferred resignations will drop off payrolls when data resume. Markets will rely on private ADP data.

• Repo turmoil: Banks tapped the Standing Repo Facility for a record $50 bn; ON RRP balances spiked. The Fed continues to debate whether the fed funds rate is the right benchmark.

💡 Inflation & Liquidity

• OER anomaly: The September CPI was held down by an unusually low 0.13 % MoM increase in Owner’s Equivalent of Rent, which accounts for 26 % of headline CPI. Without this outlier, inflation would have been higher.

• Reserves shrinking: Fed reserves and ON RRPs declined by $109 billion in October and by $3 trillion since 2021【995813091801045†L56-L97】. Currency in circulation continues to grow, further draining reserves【995813091801045†L100-L117】.

🏦 Metals & Crypto

• Gold holds firm: Spot gold stayed above $4,000/oz amid safe‑haven demand. Gold is up ~50 % year‑to‑date.

• Bitcoin volatile: Bitcoin hovered near $115 k after hitting $125 k in mid‑October. Regulatory headwinds (e.g., forthcoming IRS Form 1099‑DA) continue to weigh.

🔍 Notable Headlines & Market Themes

• AI fever: Nvidia’s market cap briefly topped $5 trillion, showing how concentrated the stock market rally has become.

• Tariff drama: The U.S. Supreme Court will hear cases on Trump’s tariffs Nov 5.

• Oil & OPEC+: OPEC+ meets this week; crude remains range‑bound as producers weigh modest output increases.

• RBA & BoE: The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to hold rates after a hot inflation print, while the Bank of England faces a tight split on a potential cut.

• Commercial real estate stress: Office CMBS delinquency rates hit a record 11.8 %, surpassing their global financial crisis peak.

✅ Takeaway

This week underscores how the macro landscape remains precarious: policy is easing but the housing market won’t budge; liquidity conditions are fragile; and inflation may be stickier than it appears due to data quirks. Meanwhile, AI megacaps power the stock market even as commercial real estate falters. Staying diversified—with cash, quality bonds, and real assets—remains prudent.