住宅販売に時間がかかる傾向：サービス業の減速が影響（市場動向 2025年9月27日～10月4日）

📊 Executive Overview

Between September 27 and October 4, the U.S. economy delivered a mixed bag. Housing markets weakened further: homes are sitting on the market for months and listing prices are flat. Yet GDP estimates were upgraded thanks to sturdy consumer spending, even as services‑sector activity slowed to the breakeven line and inflation pressures remained concentrated in services. Gold and safe‑haven assets stayed near record highs, and crypto markets rebounded but face an approaching tax‑reporting headwind.

🏡 Housing & Real Estate

• Homes take much longer to sell: Realtor.com data show the median days on market in September were the highest since at least 2016 — around 87 days in Florida, 67 days in Texas and 58 days in California ウルフストリート・ドット・コム. Sales volumes are 25–30 % below pre‑pandemic levels ウルフストリート・ドット・コム.

• Lock‑in is easing: Only 20.4 % of mortgages now carry rates below 3 %, the lowest share since 2021. Mortgages above 6 % have climbed to 19.7 %, the highest since 2015. As more homeowners have higher rates, the incentive to stay put shrinks.

• Flat prices and rising inventory: Active listings rose ~17 % year over year but remain below pre‑pandemic levels calculatedriskblog.com（英語. The median listing price is flat, and price per square foot fell 0.5 % YoY calculatedriskblog.com（英語. Real house prices are still about 3 % below their 2022 peak calculatedriskblog.com（英語 and the price‑to‑rent index is 10 % lower calculatedriskblog.com（英語.

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📈 Inflation & Growth

• GDP tracking upgraded: Bank of America and Goldman Sachs raised their Q3 GDP estimates to 2.8 % while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model jumped to 3.8 % calculatedriskblog.com（英語. Strong consumer spending is a key driver.

• Services sector stalls: The ISM services index fell to 50.0 (breakeven) in September; business activity dipped to 49.9 and new orders to 50.4 calculatedriskblog.com（英語. The employment component contracted for the fourth straight month at 47.2 calculatedriskblog.com（英語, while the prices‑paid index stayed high at 69.4 calculatedriskblog.com（英語.

• Inflation concentrated in services: Earlier data showed personal spending rising 0.6 % and PCE inflation at 2.7 % YoY, with core PCE at 2.9 % calculatedriskblog.com（英語. Durable goods prices are falling, but services costs remain sticky.

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👥 Labour Market & Policy

• Employment softening: Jobless claims remain low (~218 k), but the ISM services employment index is in contraction. Private‑sector hiring slowed in September, signalling the labour market is cooling.

• Rates & yields: Despite the Fed’s September rate cut, long‑term Treasury yields climbed; the 10‑year note is around 4.8 %, reflecting persistent inflation expectations.

💰 Safe Havens & Alternatives

• Gold & silver: Gold hovered near $3,860/oz and silver around $47/oz, supported by safe‑haven demand and high real rates.

• Crypto rebound & regulatory headwind: Bitcoin recovered to roughly $114–119 k in early October. However, the upcoming IRS Form 1099‑DA (effective in 2025) will require exchanges to report crypto transactions, a change that could dampen near‑term flows.

🧭 Takeaways

• Housing markets are deteriorating: Extended days on market and flat prices suggest that a slow correction is underway. As lock‑in fades, supply may increase, adding downward pressure on prices.

• Economy is resilient yet vulnerable: Upgraded GDP tracking shows surprising strength, but services‑sector momentum has faded and inflation remains concentrated in services.

• Prepare for divergence: Safe‑haven assets like gold continue to perform well, while crypto faces both momentum and regulatory uncertainties.

Investors and homeowners should balance caution with opportunity — keep an eye on longer sell times, sticky service costs and evolving policy. A diversified portfolio with exposure to cash, short‑duration instruments, and selective risk assets may help navigate the changing landscape.