サービス部門のインフレが急上昇、住宅市場は軟調：市場動向（2025年9月14日～26日）

📊 Executive Overview

Between September 14 and 26, 2025, the U.S. economy showed strength in consumption and GDP but continued weakness in housing. Inflation pressures remain concentrated in services, while investors lean toward safe havens like cash and gold. Crypto markets are also navigating new regulatory tax reporting rules that could slow inflows.

🏠 住宅・不動産

• Existing-home sales fell 0.3% MoM to 3.63 million SAAR and remain 25% below 2019 levels. Condo sales are down 5.1% YoY.

• Supply of completed new homes is now the highest since 2009, with builders cutting prices and offering incentives.

• The “lock-in effect” is fading: only ~53% of outstanding mortgages carry sub-4% rates, versus 65% a year ago.

• Institutional investors are pivoting away from scattered-site rentals toward build-to-rent communities.

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📈 Inflation & Growth

• Core services inflation accelerated to 3.5% YoY, while durable goods prices fell for a second month.

• Headline PCE price index rose 2.7% YoY, above target.

• Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8%, and early Q3 tracking is close to 3%.

• Personal income increased 0.4% and spending rose 0.6% in August, with real consumption expanding at a ~4% annualized rate.

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💼 Labor Market & Policy

• Jobless claims dropped to 218,000 in late September, but payroll growth is slowing.

• Fed cut rates by 25bp in September, yet long-term yields rose (10-year at ~4.14%, 30-year near 4.75%).

• Chair Powell emphasized there is “no risk-free path”: cut too quickly and inflation reaccelerates; cut too slowly and the labor market softens.

💰 流動性と安全資産

• Money-market funds remain highly attractive, pulling in continued inflows.

• Investors are balancing short-duration cash instruments with hedges like gold.

• Gold sits near record highs (~$3,769/oz) and silver trades around $46/oz, both up sharply YoY.

₿ Crypto & Digital Assets

• Bitcoin retreated to ~$109K, down ~2% for the week. Ethereum, XRP, and Solana also weakened.

• A $22B monthly options expiry added volatility.

• New IRS Form 1099-DA rules begin in 2025, requiring exchanges to report crypto transactions. This provides long-term clarity but may be a short-term headwind for flows.

💡 ポイント

• Housing: structurally weak, inventories rising, affordability strained.

• インフレ: sticky in services, goods disinflating.

• Growth: surprisingly firm, supported by consumer spending.

• Labor: cooling gradually, but not collapsing.

• Markets: safe-haven demand favors cash and gold; crypto faces both market volatility and tax-reporting headwinds.

Investors should prepare for continued divergence: resilient growth, but with inflation risk embedded in services そして fragility in housing. Defensive positioning with selective risk exposure remains prudent.